Playoff Chances for Each MLB Team at 2024 Season's Quarter Mark (2024)

Major League Baseball's 2024 regular season is approximately 25 percent completed, and for a handful of teams, postseason odds have changed drastically in the seven weeks since spring training ended.

Houston felt like a sure thing for the playoffs in the preseason, with both Toronto and St. Louis not too far behind the Astros. But all three have postseason odds well below 50 percent after their rough runs through the first quarter of the year, replaced by the surprisingly potent Guardians, Brewers and Royals on the list of contenders.

We've broken the 30 teams into eight tiers, presented in ascending order of postseason likelihood, from the three teams that have been effectively (but not mathematically) eliminated from the playoffs to the five that seem to have already punched their tickets to October.

30. Miami Marlins (12-32)
B-R: <0.1%; FG: 0.2%; DK: +2500

29. Colorado Rockies (14-28)
B-R: 0.1%; FG: 0.0%; DK: +2500

28. Chicago White Sox (13-30)
B-R: <0.1%; FG: 0.0%; DK: +2500

These are the three teams that embody the spirit of "You can't win a pennant in April, but you sure can lose one."

No one expected much of anything out of the Rockies or White Sox this year, given preseason win totals of 59.5 and 61.5, respectively.

And they have delivered the bads.

Even those low totals look a bit optimistic at this point, though the White Sox did recently mess around and win six games in the span of eight played. However, maybe don't read anything into that hot week. Weird things happen over the course of a 162-game season. Even the 112-loss A's had a seven-game winning streak last summer.

Miami cratering into a dumpster fire is considerably more surprising, but not that surprising, right?

The Marlins outplayed their run differential to a historic degree last season to win 84 games before losing ace pitcher Sandy Alcantara (Tommy John surgery), top slugger Jorge Soler (free agency) and utilityman Jon Berti (traded), adding nothing other than a flier on Tim Anderson in their place.

While they weren't expected to flirt with the worst record in the majors, a second consecutive trip to the postseason looked implausible in the preseason and is now fully out of the question.

At this point, it's just a question of which expiring MLB contracts these teams will be able to turn into prospects ahead of the trade deadline.

27. Oakland Athletics (19-25)
B-R: <0.1%; FG: 0.8%; DK: +2500

26. Los Angeles Angels (15-28)
B-R: 0.1%; FG: 1.0%; DK: +2200

25. Washington Nationals (20-21)
B-R: 7.1%; FG: 1.3%; DK: +2200

As far as Baseball Reference is concerned, the Nationals are much more of a light sour cream than a 1 percent milk when it comes to expressing postseason odds as the fat content of dairy products. However, all three of these teams have a likely expiration date of "before the trade deadline," still getting postseason odds right at or barely ahead of the previous tier.

It feels disrespectful to both Oakland and Washington, who have considerably exceeded expectations through the first month and a half, each treading water in the middle of a division where they were supposed to finish in last place by a margin of at least 10 games. But those preseason expectations remain a sizable piece of the projection pie here—as is the case with the struggling Houston Astros, by the way, just in the opposite direction.

If they're still hovering around .500 a month from now, maybe the forecasting models will start to believe.

The Angels just about could have gone in the previous section, though. Even when Mike Trout was healthy and homering at an MLB-best rate, the Halos weren't winning games with any degree of regularity. Now that he and several other key players are out indefinitely, it's about time to start combing that roster for trade chips. (Tyler Anderson is looking like a great one.)

24. Pittsburgh Pirates (19-24)
B-R: 5.2%; FG: 9.7%; DK: +650

23. Cincinnati Reds (18-24)
B-R: 4.3%; FG: 11.6%; DK: +360

22. St. Louis Cardinals (18-24)
B-R: 0.1%; FG: 16.7%; DK: +290

Barely one month ago, the NL Central was the place to be.

The bee's knees.

The cat's pajamas, if you will.

At the end of play on April 16, every team in the division was at least 9-9—same as the loaded AL East. Pittsburgh looked the part of a viable contender. Cincinnati's pitching was...not great, but good enough to contend. And even though St. Louis sat in last place at the time, it still felt like the Cardinals might be the team to beat if and when the offense woke up.

Since then, though, they've been three of the worst teams in the majors, particularly struggling at the dish.

There's still reasonable hope for the Reds, if only because of Elly De La Cruz, who is roughly on pace for 40 home runs and 100 stolen bases. They're going to need at least one other bat to take a big step forward. But that starting rotation has been better than expected and the team could turn things back around soon.

Doesn't feel the same for the Cardinals or Pirates, with the former losing what had been its best hitter (Willson Contreras) to a broken arm and the latter following a script similar to last year's, starting hot before wilting considerably. Though maybe Paul Skenes' encouraging MLB debut last weekend sparks something in the Iron City.

21. San Francisco Giants (19-25)
B-R: 0.4%; FG: 20.3%; DK: +310

20. Toronto Blue Jays (19-22)
B-R: 13.1%; FG: 26.4%; DK: +200

19. New York Mets (19-22)
B-R: 28.5%; FG: 26.8%; DK: +240

18. Houston Astros (17-25)
B-R: 35.1%; FG: 47.2%; DK: +120

Money spent does not necessarily a contender make. In case that wasn't already known, we found it out in a big way last year, when the Mets, Yankees and Padres all missed the postseason despite ranking first, second and third in payroll spending.

All the same, it takes longer to lose faith in the big spenders, doesn't it?

Baseball Reference strangely has no faith whatsoever in the Giants turning things around, but these teams are otherwise in the "down but not yet out" vicinity of the projections—more likely to make the playoffs than the odds of rolling a one on a six-sided dice, but less likely than the odds of getting heads on a coin flip.

Of the bunch, Toronto feels least likely to rally. The Blue Jays play in the toughest division, and they've struggled in spite of some of the best injury luck in the majors thus far. Their offense just seems to be broken. And while Bo Bichette is too good of a hitter to not eventually bounce back to some extent, it sure looks like they are paying the price for not doing nearly enough this offseason to replace Matt Chapman, Brandon Belt and Whit Merrifield.

On the Astros front, they started out 15-25, but only played five of their first 40 games against teams who appeared in the previous three tiers of sub-mediocrity. Maybe they can get on track now that they're finally facing the likes of the A's and Angels.

If forced to pick one of the four to make the postseason, the Mets look like the pick—and not just because they had the highest winning percentage a couple days ago. Luis Severino is an early contender for comeback player of the year. Sean Manaea has been a solid pickup, too. And that bullpen has been slinging filth, averaging better than 11 K/9 as a whole. Get Kodai Senga (shoulder) back into the rotation at some point and this becomes one of the best pitching staffs in the majors.

For all four teams, though, there is massive trade deadline intrigue, should they continue to play sub-.500 baseball. But of course there is, as they have a combined payroll of just a shade under $1 billion. Everyone is already eager to see whether the likes of Alex Bregman, Pete Alonso, Blake Snell or Vladimir Guerrero Jr. will hit the trade block.

17. Boston Red Sox (22-20)
B-R: 15.4%; FG: 23.8%; DK: +300

16. Detroit Tigers (21-21)
B-R: 25.1%; FG: 25.2%; DK: +275

15. Tampa Bay Rays (21-22)
B-R: 9.7%; FG: 40.9%; DK: +235

14. Arizona Diamondbacks (20-23)
B-R: 14.9%; FG: 34.5%; DK: +125

The postseason odds for this tier are very similar to those of the previous tier, with the biggest difference being that this quartet has been collectively a little more successful than the last one—despite no one ranking top 10 in spending.

All four of these teams had preseason win totals in the 77.5-84.5 range and have pretty well lived up to that billing. Maybe Detroit is slightly better than expected and Arizona has been slightly worse, but they're all looking like possible photo finishes in the "predicting whether each team will be a buyer or a seller at the trade deadline" game.

With Boston, health is a big question mark. It's frankly incredible that the Red Sox have played this well despite losing Lucas Giolito before the season began, despite losing Trevor Story barely a week into the season and despite not having any of Triston Casas, Masataka Yoshida or Garrett Whitlock yet in May. But is the pitching sustainable? The various postseason odds/projections don't seem to think so.

Detroit desperately needs to get the bats going if it is going to build on this respectable start. Spencer Torkelson has woken up a bit, but as of three days ago, he, Colt Keith and Javier Báez had combined for one home run and a sub-.200 batting average while each playing almost every day. Hard to believe they've been able to hang around in spite of the infield's shortcomings. If at least two-thirds of that trio comes around, winning the AL Central is still plenty feasible.

Tampa Bay is in a similar spot with both Randy Arozarena and Jose Siri seemingly trying to battle each other for the worst batting average in the majors—though they have at least combined for 11 home runs. If those outfield regulars can start pulling their weight just in time for the likes of Shane Baz, Jeffrey Springs and Drew Rasmussen to make their 2024 debuts, the Rays could be a contender.

And we shall see about the reigning NL champs. There's still time for Corbin Carroll and Gabriel Moreno to get rolling and for both Merrill Kelly and Eduardo Rodriguez to get healthy, but that clock is already loudly ticking in the unrelenting NL West. The three-game set at Dodger Stadium early next week already feels like a crucial one for the Diamondbacks.

13. San Diego Padres (22-23)
B-R: 58.1%; FG: 52.3%; DK: +190

12. Kansas City Royals (26-18)B-R: 70.5%; FG: 39.3%; DK: +155

11. Texas Rangers (22-22)
B-R: 34.0%; FG: 29.7%; DK: -105

10. Cleveland Guardians (27-16)B-R: 48.6%; FG: 45.4%; DK: -175

This is an interesting spot in the market. The betting lines give both Cleveland and Texas implied odds well above where the Baseball Reference and FG consensus projections have them, while it's tilted in the opposite direction for both San Diego and Kansas City.

This raises the question: Which one is right?

Kansas City at north of 70 percent on Baseball Reference sure is something, given the 106 losses it suffered last season. But it's hard to argue with, given how well the Royals have played to date. Any rational person could tell you Salvador Perez and Seth Lugo should eventually cool off, but be sure to let those glass half empty folks know that both Cole Ragans and Michael Wacha have had some awful ERA vs. FIP luck, and that Hunter Renfroe having the worst BABIP in the majors ought to correct itself at some point.

Likewise, San Diego has been rather unlucky with both Xander Bogaerts and Ha-Seong Kim hovering around a .200 batting average while Joe Musgrove has gotten shelled like never before. But the Padres have already made a big move to improve (trading for Luis Arraez) and have managed to get their record right around .500 in spite of those stars struggling. The roughly 55 percent projection feels more fair than the roughly 35 percent implied odds.

Cleveland has somehow simultaneously over-achieved and under-achieved, sitting well above .500 thanks to an .855 OPS with RISP, but waiting for the likes of Bo Naylor, Brayan Rocchio and Tyler Freeman to start consistently contributing. The Guardians are also waiting for the likes of Steven Kwan and Gavin Williams to get healthy, and for both Logan Allen and Tanner Bibee to pitch as well as they did last season. Feels like Kansas City and Cleveland might be battling for one spot, so pick your poison.

Lastly in this tier, the reigning champs. Fangraphs feels egregiously low on the Rangers' outlook, as even the -105 line is quite tempting from a "just wait until they get healthy" perspective. If they can tread water around .500 until the likes of Max Scherzer, Jacob deGrom, Tyler Mahle, Nathan Eovaldi, Dane Dunning, Wyatt Langford and Josh Jung start returning from the IL, they ought to be a playoff team with some room to spare.

9. Milwaukee Brewers (25-17)
B-R: 98.0%; FG: 67.0%; DK: -165

8. Seattle Mariners (23-20)
B-R: 86.9%; FG: 62.4%; DK: -170

7. Minnesota Twins (24-17)
B-R: 84.2%; FG: 78.5%; DK: -200

6. Chicago Cubs (24-19)
B-R: 84.2%; FG: 64.0%; DK: -225

At this tier, you might be more interested in the "To Miss the Playoffs" odds than the "To Make the Playoffs" odds—which, for the record, are +140 for Milwaukee, +145 for Seattle, +170 for Minnesota and +190 for Chicago.

Milwaukee's Baseball Reference playoff odds remain outrageously high at 98 percent. The implied line there is -5000, for a team that is starting Colin Rea, Joe Ross and Bryse Wilson on a regular basis. With all due respect to those pitchers, good luck with that. FanGraphs and DraftKings paint a much more realistic picture of the NL Central-leading Brewers.

Similar situation with the Mariners, where 62 percent makes a whole lot more sense than 87 percent. But at least the M's have one of the best starting rotations in baseball, and a reasonable expectation that both Julio Rodríguez and Jorge Polanco will snap out of their slow starts at some point. They certainly should be a playoff team.

Minnesota is one of just six teams given at least a 75 percent chance by both Baseball Reference and FanGraphs, which feels mighty generous and surely stems somewhat from the Twins opening the year as the clear favorite to win the AL Central. That isn't to say they haven't been good, but they haven't been that impressive. And they have way more competition in that division than expected.

The Cubs do feel like the safest October bet from this tier. Shota Imanaga has been an instant sensation on the mound, anchoring a stellar starting rotation that recently got both Justin Steele and Kyle Hendricks back from the IL. The lineup led by Cody Bellinger, Michael Busch and Christopher Morel has also been strong. But even they've struggled to string together wins, outside of a couple of home sweeps of the Rockies and Astros. Again, this feels like it should be a playoff team, but that's nowhere near as certain as it is for the top five.

5. Baltimore Orioles (26-14)
B-R: 96.1%; FG: 85.9%; DK: -550

4. New York Yankees (28-15)
B-R: 81.2%; FG: 93.0%; DK: -1200

3. Philadelphia Phillies (30-13)
B-R: 99.3%; FG: 96.6%; DK: -2500

2. Atlanta Braves (26-13)
B-R: 99.8%; FG: 99.4%; DK: -10000

1. Los Angeles Dodgers (29-15)
B-R: >99.9%; FG: 99.5%; DK: -20000

We could have drawn another line in the sand between Nos. 3 and 2, as the Braves and Dodgers remain in a tier of their own as far as both the projections and betting odds are concerned. However, drawing that line would just put unnecessary attention on the fact that the Phillies are getting disrespected in being left out of that top tier with the best record in baseball.

All three appear to have already locked up spots in the National League's half of the playoff bracket, while the Orioles and Yankees seem destined to repeat the AL East race for the No. 1 seed that the Orioles and Rays ran last season.

If there's a question mark in the bunch, it's the Yankees lineup beyond Juan Soto and Aaron Judge, both of whom have started every game to date. Anthony Volpe and Oswaldo Cabrera have come back to earth in a big way after blistering starts, but the team has shown no signs of fading yet—and should be getting both Gerrit Cole and DJ LeMahieu back before too much longer.

Long story short, though, these were supposed to be five of the best teams this season, and they've delivered.

There were six teams given preseason win totals of 89.5 or better: This quintet plus the Houston Astros. So for them to enter play on May 14 as the five teams sitting at least 12 games above .500 felt right.

It does need to be pointed out that the Angels started out 24-13 two years ago before imploding in spectacular fashion to finish 16 games below .500. Plenty of season still to be played. But if you haven't already penciled these five teams into the playoff picture, feel free to take that slight leap of faith.

Unless otherwise noted, stats, records, projections and odds are current through the start of play Wednesday. Playoff percentage projections are from Baseball Reference and FanGraphs, and betting lines come from DraftKings.